The end is nigh, 2 big costs going up

 I think this craziness is about to end.   In 6 months to a year you can pick up bargains.   There will be good deals to be had, 90-99% off sales.   The best may be down 75-80%, maybe those are the ones to buy.  I will have to think hard about that.   Make a list of strong companies with a bright future.  

Why is it about to end?  There are 2 big costs to the economy that are going up in price.  Interest rates are going up.   And I hear that what's the big deal?  2 percent on the 10 year is still low historically.  But if you borrowed money at 1 percent then you interest doubles, and most of these companies are not making money so they are increasing their debts and there costs will start to go exponential.  Losses that were hidden or pushed out will be dumped into the earnings reports at once.  1 time write-offs will explode. This is what happens at the end. 

The other big cost is oil.   Heck, the price was NEGATIVE for barrels of oil a year ago or so (insane).  Now it is 60.  Again, not horrible but if you can't make money with oil at $20 a barrel, how do you make money when it is 3x that.  

I just don't think the 3-4 trillion infrastructure bill will be in time to rescue us.  Government just can't spend that money fast enough most likely.

Stock Market Insanity

 Craziness.  The stock market is going nuts.  It just keeps getting crazier.  I see the economy (the real economy, GDP - government spending) is tanking, not improving and the stock market just keeps making new highs.   Tesla is now worth more than GM, Ford, Volkswagon etal.  Really?  I don't think in the future Tesla will be more than a niche player.  Once the big boys get serious about electric, Tesla will be toast.

This definitely reminds me of the dot com bubble.   But housing is getting bubbly as well.  And bonds are yielding nothing, meaning they are overpriced as well.   But the end seems to be nearing.  Yields are creeping up and once that happens all this debt will be unpayable and the defaults will start and all the fun and games will end.  

Then the fed will either print our dollar and turn it into something to start fires with or they will be too timid and everything will fail.  

US government is spending money and this is propping up the GDP, but if you could become wealthy by printing money and just borrowing more and spending it, Zimbabwe would be the wealthiest country in the world.   I just read in 2045, it is expected that the interest on the US debt alone will be the single largest expenditure in the US budget.   This is what we will be spending most of our tax dollars on in the future and it will not be fun at all.  Less for military, social security, Medicare, infrastructure, schools, anything you really might want the government to spend money on.

I watch this guy "meet Kevin" on youtube.  He is worth millions but he is buying stocks on margin and buying worthless companies like Tesla, Nio (even nichier EV car company).  When these stock go down they will go down hard.  Could be something like 90% or more for some of these stocks.  

Bitcoin madness is even crazier.  I get that dollars really are worthless, but what is bitcoin?  I think it is time to buy real things and wait this out.  A bitcoin is worth $50,000 dollars because the last person willing to buy it paid that much.  But if you went to another planet where they used TibCoin and/or Zollars as a medium, how could you convince them it was worth anything.  Yes, the same can be said of the green stuff in your wallet or bank account.   Stocks are overvalued, but at least they have value.  They make and produce stuff people want and pay you (dividend) or re-invest in the company and grow to make more money.  

So as the government hands out all this printed money while we produce nothing, dollars will be worth less and yields will rise and the fed will be shown to be frauds once and for all.   I don't know how long it will take but we are closer to the end then most people think.

I wouldn't touch stocks, but if you are invested, my advice is to not use margin.   Invest in companies that make money.  They will go down as well, but maybe only 50% instead of 90% to 99%.  Don't borrow money to buy fancy stuff like cars and boats.   If you can't pay cash, don't buy it.  

Well, good luck all!